New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Austin WellsBatting3-4
- Michael KingPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Royals- Dairon BlancoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack GreinkePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Kiner-Falefa singled to left, LeMahieu scored and Wells scored.2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 5Perez hit sacrifice fly to right, Witt Jr. scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Blanco homered to left center (423 feet).0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 4Olivares homered to left center (405 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pratto singled to right, Blanco scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Melendez homered to left center (416 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Fair odds
- NYY -112
- KC +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.9 – 4.6 KC
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +1 | NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · KC: Zack Greinke: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +45 Elo | NYY 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–40 | Road vs home | 32–4828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 4–1 KC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.