New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Volpe homered to left center (375 feet).5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Soto homered to left (349 feet).4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 7Cabrera homered to right (341 feet), Wells scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Alvarez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Caratini scored on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Altuve out at second, Alvarez safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Stroman.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 3Soto scored on error, Rizzo safe at first on fielding error by first baseman J. Abreu, Judge to second.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Dubón doubled to right, Diaz scored and Peña scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML NYY +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- NYY +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −13 | NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +24 Elo | HOU 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.39th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 39–4219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 7–2 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 9.