New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting1-4
- Nestor CortesPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo scored on Cousins wild pitch, Peterson to second on wild pitch by Cousins, Marte to third on wild pitch by Cousins.0–7
- 8Perdomo scored on Cousins wild pitch, Peterson to second on wild pitch by Cousins, Marte to third on wild pitch by Cousins.0–7
- 7Walker homered to left (424 feet), Marte scored and Alexander scored.0–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 1Moreno singled to right, Walker scored, Suárez to third.0–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 1Suárez singled to center, Alexander scored, Walker to second.0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Alexander singled to center, Marte scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 50%
- ML NYY -110 / ARI -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 53.3%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -100
- NYY -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +23 Elo | ARI 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 6.83rd of 30 |
| 4th of 302.6 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+2.6 | Margin | +3.04th of 30 |
| 1st of 185–0 | Road vs home | 3–26th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 0–4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 0–4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–1 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.