New York Yankees at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.P. FrancePitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto singled to left, Torres scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Diaz singled to center, Tucker scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Tucker doubled to right, Altuve scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Judge hit sacrifice fly to center, Torres scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Berti singled to right, Rizzo scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Altuve homered to left (341 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Trevino reached on infield single to first, Stanton scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML NYY +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.7 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −4 | NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: J.P. France: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +27 Elo | HOU 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.7 | Runs scored | 2.726th of 30 |
| 4th of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 5.721st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −3.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 153–0 | Road vs home | 0–310th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 8–2 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 10.