New York Yankees at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-2, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Moreno scored, McCarthy to third.5–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 3Marte hit sacrifice fly to left, McCarthy scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Verdugo scored on error and Volpe scored on throwing error by pitcher R. Nelson.5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Volpe singled to center, Rizzo scored, Verdugo to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Torres doubled to left, Cabrera scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Cabrera singled to right, Volpe scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / ARI +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- NYY: Elo 48.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- ARI +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.8 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −17 | NYY: Luis Gil (no track record yet) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +11 Elo | ARI 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 8.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 302.8 | Runs allowed | 3.57th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +4.52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 184–0 | Road vs home | 3–12nd of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 2–1 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.