Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna homered to left center (406 feet).2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 8Vaughn singled to left, Robert Jr. scored, Sheets to third.1–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 7DeJong homered to left (353 feet).1–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 7Ozuna homered to left (352 feet).1–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Sheets singled to right, Benintendi scored, Moncada to second.0–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ATL -185 / CHW +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- CHW +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.1 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +18 | ATL: Reynaldo Lopez (no track record yet) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 308.5 | Runs scored | 2.029th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.0 | Runs allowed | 5.017th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+5.5 | Margin | −3.027th of 30 |
| 5th of 183–1 | Road vs home | 0–415th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–2 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.