Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 3Ibáñez hit sacrifice fly to center, Báez scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 59%
- ML DET -160 / CHW +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 54.6%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- CHW +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 3.3 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1450 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +6 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.80 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 31–5029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 8–5 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.