Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Paul DeJongBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ibáñez singled to left, Vierling scored, McKinstry to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 7DeJong homered to right (355 feet).2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Rogers homered to left (348 feet).2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Carpenter homered to right (393 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Lee homered to left center (396 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML DET -150 / CHW +125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- DET: Elo 50.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- CHW +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.1 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −20 | +6 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Erick Fedde (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | CHW 0 Elo | CHW 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 31–5029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 10–5 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.