Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Mark CanhaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kenta MaedaPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kelly singled to center, Canha scored.7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 7Kelly singled to center, Canha scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 7Greene homered to center (396 feet).5–6
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 34–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Canha homered to left (378 feet).4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4Shewmake scored, Lopez caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.3–6
- 4Shewmake scored, Lopez caught stealing second, catcher to shortstop.3–6
- 3Robert Jr. homered to left center (417 feet), Moncada scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 2Shewmake homered to right (375 feet).3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Robert Jr. homered to left center (449 feet), Moncada scored.3–2
- 1Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–2
- 1Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 1Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 54%
- ML DET -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- DET: Elo 54.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | 0 | DET: Kenta Maeda: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHW: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +28 Elo | DET 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.029th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 11th of 3041–40 | Road vs home | 31–5029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 9–5 CHW in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.