Atlanta Braves at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Yoan MoncadaBatting2-3
- Chris FlexenPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley homered to right center (387 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Albies scored.9–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 6Riley singled to left, Albies scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Albies doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Riley scored on Shaw wild pitch, Harris II to second on wild pitch by Shaw, Olson to third on wild pitch by Shaw.4–0
- 5Riley scored on Shaw wild pitch, Harris II to second on wild pitch by Shaw, Olson to third on wild pitch by Shaw.4–0
- 4Arcia doubled to center, Harris II scored and Ozuna scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Acuña Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to third, d'Arnaud scored, Kelenic out at second.1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 74%
- ML ATL -330 / CHW +265
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 64.5%, market 73.7%
- Fair odds
- ATL -280
- CHW +280 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.6 – 3.4 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1447 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −27 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +104 Elo | ATL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 73.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 308.3 | Runs scored | 2.728th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.79th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −1.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 152–1 | Road vs home | 0–312th of 15 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.