Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10d'Arnaud singled to left, Wall scored.5–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 9Kelenic doubled to shortstop, Olson scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Olson doubled to left, Riley scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Acuña Jr. doubled to right, Arcia scored.5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Gurriel Jr. walked, Peterson scored, Carroll to second, McCarthy to third.5–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 45–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4McCarthy doubled to right, Suárez scored, Peterson to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Olson homered to center (424 feet).3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Ozuna singled to center, Albies scored, Olson to second.3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Suárez doubled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored and Pederson scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Marte homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 73%
- ML ARI +255 / ATL -315
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 61.2%, market 72.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -269
- ARI +269 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −15 | +8 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +79 Elo | ATL 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 72.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 7.21st of 30 |
| 10th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.04th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+3.0 | Margin | +4.21st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.