New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Tyrone TaylorBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Braves- Chadwick TrompBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Taylor homered to left (381 feet), Alvarez scored, McNeil scored and Bader scored.16–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play16–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 216–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 116–4
- 8Duvall reached on infield single to third, Riley scored, Ozuna to second.12–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play12–4
- 8Nimmo scored on Matzek wild pitch.12–3
- 8Nimmo scored on Matzek wild pitch.12–3
- 8Nimmo tripled to center, Bader scored.11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–3
- 7McNeil singled to right, Lindor scored and Alonso scored.10–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Alvarez grounded out to pitcher, Marte scored, Alonso to second, Lindor to third.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 5Tromp scored on Quintana wild pitch, Albies to second on wild pitch by Quintana.7–3
- 5Tromp scored on Quintana wild pitch, Albies to second on wild pitch by Quintana.7–3
- 5Tromp doubled to center, Arcia scored and Duvall scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–0
- 3Stewart homered to right center (409 feet), McNeil scored.7–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 3McNeil doubled to right, Alvarez scored.5–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Alvarez doubled to left, Alonso scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Nimmo scored, Marte safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Arcia.3–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML NYM +150 / ATL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 58.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- NYM +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −13 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +61 Elo | ATL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 62.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 6.91st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +2.62nd of 30 |
| 12th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–7 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 7–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–11 ATL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.