New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Braves- Ozzie AlbiesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Reynaldo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marte grounded out to second, Narváez scored.5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 9Narváez doubled to right, Bader scored.4–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Alonso homered to center (413 feet), Narváez scored and Nimmo scored.3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 20–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–6
- 6Albies grounded out to first, d'Arnaud scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Kelenic to third.0–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 4Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 3Ozuna singled to left, Riley scored, Olson to second.0–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Olson singled to right, Albies scored, Riley to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Albies to second.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Albies doubled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 63%
- ML NYM +160 / ATL -189
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -170
- NYM +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 5.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −1 | NYM: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Reynaldo Lopez: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +64 Elo | ATL 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 7.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−1.2 | Margin | +2.82nd of 30 |
| 5th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–7 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–6 | 6–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–10 ATL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.