New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting1-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 4Espinal hit sacrifice fly to right, Candelario scored, De La Cruz to second, Fairchild to third.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Lindor homered to left (368 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Nimmo hit by pitch, Marte scored, McNeil to second, Taylor to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Alvarez reached on infield single to second, Lindor scored on throwing error by second baseman Espinal.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML NYM -115 / CIN -105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 42.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- CIN +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +4 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +52 Elo | CIN 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 5.68th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.110th of 30 |
| 13th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–210th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–7 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–5 CIN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.