Detroit Tigers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Carson KellyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-4
- Sean ManaeaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kelly homered to left (393 feet), Keith scored and Urshela scored.5–0
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 10Báez hit sacrifice fly to center, Meadows scored.2–0
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 32–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 10Torkelson scored on error, Keith safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Wendle, Meadows safe at second on error.1–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML DET +120 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.2%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −22 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 1.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +12 Elo | DET 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.7 | Runs scored | 2.728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 302.7 | Runs allowed | 4.716th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −2.021st of 30 |
| 1st of 183–0 | Road vs home | 0–313th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 3–0 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.