Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Rhys HoskinsBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- DL HallPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alonso homered to left center (406 feet).7–6
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging7–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 8Baty homered to right center (424 feet), Marte scored and Alvarez scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Yelich singled to center, Frelick scored, Contreras to second.7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5Hoskins scored on a balk, Dunn to second on a balk.6–2
- 5Hoskins scored on a balk, Dunn to second on a balk.6–2
- 3Alvarez singled to center, Marte scored, McNeil to third.5–2
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking5–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 3Hoskins homered to left (388 feet), Adames scored.5–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 25–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 2Alvarez homered to left center (400 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Hoskins singled to left, Yelich scored and Adames scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Adames doubled to left, Contreras scored, Yelich to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML MIL +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −12 | MIL: DL Hall (no track record yet) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +12 Elo | MIL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 7–1 NYM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.