Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Mets- Starling MarteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Chourio grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bauers scored, Turang out at second.3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Monasterio scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Yelich homered to right center (389 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Marte homered to left center (381 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 51%
- ML MIL -105 / NYM -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -104
- MIL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +11 Elo | MIL 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 6–1 NYM in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.