Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-4
- Tylor MegillPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Contreras doubled to right, Turang scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 5Dunn singled to center, Contreras scored, Adames to second, Yelich to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Taylor singled to left, Alvarez scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Chourio doubled to right, Turang scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Adames singled to left, Yelich scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML MIL +120 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- MIL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +3 | MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 8th of 3043–38 | Road vs home | 43–3814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIL 8–1 NYM in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.