New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Omar NarvaezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty singled to right, Alonso scored.6–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 15–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 8Encarnacion-Strand hit sacrifice fly to center, Fairchild scored, Stephenson safe at third. India safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Bader.5–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 25–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–8
- 8Steer homered to left center (400 feet), Fraley scored and De La Cruz scored.5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 8De La Cruz singled to left, Thompson scored, Fraley to third.5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Steer stole home, Fairchild stole second.5–4
- 6Steer stole home, Fairchild stole second.5–4
- 6Fairchild singled to right, De La Cruz scored, Steer to third.5–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 5Taylor doubled to left, Marte scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Nimmo doubled to right, McNeil scored and Narváez scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 4Narváez singled to right, Baty scored and Marte scored, McNeil to third.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML NYM +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- CIN: Elo 58.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- NYM +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +19 | NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +58 Elo | CIN 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.3 | Runs scored | 5.111th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +0.912th of 30 |
| 1st of 301–0 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–6 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–6 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–4 CIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.