New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Candelario hit sacrifice fly to center, India scored.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8McNeil homered to right (385 feet).3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Alonso grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bader scored, Lindor safe at second on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz, Stewart to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 5Lindor hit sacrifice fly to center, Taylor scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Steer homered to left (390 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 56%
- ML NYM +120 / CIN -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 53.3%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -128
- NYM +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +23 Elo | CIN 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| NYM | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.2 | Runs scored | 5.79th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +1.212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 2–4 CIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.