Detroit Tigers at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Urshela singled to center, Vierling scored and Keith scored.6–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 11Keith doubled to left, Greene scored, Vierling to third.4–3
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 8Greene homered to right center (394 feet).3–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 7Urshela scored, McKinstry to third on wild pitch by Diekman.2–3
- 7Urshela scored on Diekman wild pitch, McKinstry to third on wild pitch by Diekman.2–3
- 6Ibáñez hit sacrifice fly to right, Meadows scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 5Baty singled to left, Alonso scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 3Alvarez doubled to left, Alonso scored and Lindor scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 56%
- ML DET +120 / NYM -140
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -128
- DET +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | DET: Casey Mize (no track record yet) · NYM: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +31 Elo | NYM 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 2.030th of 30 |
| 1st of 302.0 | Runs allowed | 4.819th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.827th of 30 |
| 1st of 184–0 | Road vs home | 0–417th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 4–0 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.