Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Riley homered to center (446 feet), Albies scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 4Harris II homered to right center (409 feet).2–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Walker singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Carroll scored on a disengagement violation, Gurriel Jr. to second on a disengagement violation.2–2
- 4Carroll scored on a disengagement violation, Gurriel Jr. to second on a disengagement violation.2–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 2Tromp hit sacrifice fly to right, Ozuna scored, Arcia to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Olson homered to right (408 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 68%
- ML ARI +200 / ATL -245
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.5%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -213
- ARI +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 5.6 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −8 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +67 Elo | ATL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.6 | Runs scored | 7.31st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+2.1 | Margin | +3.32nd of 30 |
| 27th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–1–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 3–5 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.