New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Julio TeheranPitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harris II singled to right, Olson scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–6
- 8Albies walked, Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. to second, Arcia to third.8–6
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 48–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 38–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 18–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–5
- 8Nimmo singled to center, McNeil scored, Taylor to third.8–5
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 27–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 8Stewart homered to center (425 feet), Baty scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 7Nimmo homered to center (420 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6d'Arnaud doubled to center, Arcia scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 5Nimmo homered to right (435 feet), McNeil scored and Wendle scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Marte singled to left, Alonso scored, Baty to second.1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML NYM +185 / ATL -227
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.4%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -198
- NYM +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 5.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | NYM: Julio Teheran: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +88 Elo | ATL 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 302.8 | Runs scored | 7.01st of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.89th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +3.32nd of 30 |
| 7th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–7 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 0–6 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 5–2–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 5–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 3–10 ATL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.