Miami Marlins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Anderson scored and Anderson scored on error, Gordon safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Volpe.5–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Soto doubled to right, Volpe scored.4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Stanton homered to right center (393 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 3Burger homered to center (425 feet), Fortes scored and Arraez scored.4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Arraez singled to left, Gordon scored, Fortes to second.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 65%
- ML MIA +175 / NYY -210
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 59.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -186
- MIA +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +4 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +67 Elo | NYY 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.912th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.3 | Runs allowed | 3.45th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.8 | Margin | +1.59th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 28th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–10 | 7–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 3–8–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–3 NYY in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.