Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4
- Marcus StromanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho scored, Springer to second, Kiner-Falefa to third on wild pitch by Burdi.3–0
- 9Varsho scored on Burdi wild pitch, Springer to second on wild pitch by Burdi, Kiner-Falefa to third on wild pitch by Burdi.3–0
- 9Serven scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Varsho to third on wild pitch by Burdi.2–0
- 9Serven scored on Burdi wild pitch, Kiner-Falefa to second on wild pitch by Burdi, Varsho to third on wild pitch by Burdi.2–0
- 7Clement homered to left (407 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML TOR +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- TOR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +16 Elo | NYY 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 21st of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.68th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−2.0 | Margin | +1.014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 1–5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 1–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–7 NYY in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.