Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting0-2
- Bowden FrancisPitching5.1 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Diaz homered to right (347 feet).0–10
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–10
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 7Tucker homered to right center (396 feet), Alvarez scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Peña singled to center, J. Abreu scored and McCormick scored.0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 4Meyers singled to left, McCormick scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 2Peña homered to left center (393 feet).0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1Diaz homered to left center (435 feet).0–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Tucker homered to left center (371 feet), Altuve scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML TOR +125 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 53.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.8 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −2 | TOR: Bowden Francis (no track record yet) · HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +23 Elo | HOU 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 2.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −2.522nd of 30 |
| 10th of 182–2 | Road vs home | 0–413th of 17 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 4–3 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.