Toronto Blue Jays at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schneider homered to center (423 feet), Varsho scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Altuve homered to left (404 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML TOR +125 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 51.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- TOR +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−1.4 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 182–3 | Road vs home | 1–413th of 18 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 1–3–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 1–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 HOU in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.