Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch WhitePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Biggio singled to center, Schneider scored.8–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 27–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–9
- 9Kirk grounded out to shortstop, Clement scored, Schneider to third.7–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 36–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 26–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 16–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–9
- 9Schneider doubled to center, Turner scored, Clement to third.6–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 25–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 7Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Turner scored.5–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 14–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–9
- 7Vogelbach doubled to center, Bichette scored, Turner to third.4–9
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 33–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (362 feet).3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 6Soto singled to right, Torres scored.2–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 5Rizzo homered to right (365 feet), Judge scored.2–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–8
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML TOR +100 / NYY -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.7 – 3.8 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +5 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +5 Elo | NYY 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.514th of 30 |
| 13th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 0–124th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 1–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 1–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–7 NYY in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.