Miami Marlins at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4
- Jesus LuzardoPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Verdugo singled to center, Stanton scored.0–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 4Soto homered to right (384 feet), Verdugo scored and Trevino scored.0–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 4Volpe homered to left center (388 feet), Stanton scored and Rizzo scored.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML MIA +125 / NYY -150
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- NYY -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.3 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +38 Elo | NYY 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.913th of 30 |
| 29th of 306.5 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−2.5 | Margin | +1.011th of 30 |
| 18th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 2–16th of 28 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 8–2 | 3–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–1 NYY in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.