Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bowden FrancisPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis GilPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto hit sacrifice fly to left, Cabrera scored.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–7
- 8Cabrera singled to left, Volpe scored.3–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 6Volpe scored and Wells to second on wild pitch by Richards.3–6
- 6Volpe scored on Richards wild pitch, Wells to second on wild pitch by Richards.3–6
- 6Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kiner-Falefa scored, Springer out at second, Kiermaier to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Bichette doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 3Stanton homered to left (417 feet), Soto scored, Judge scored and Rizzo scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Rizzo walked, Cabrera scored, Judge to second, Soto to third.1–1
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball 41–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Kirk walked, Springer scored, Bichette to second, Guerrero Jr. to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 41–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML TOR +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- TOR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.6 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +5 | TOR: Bowden Francis: team allows 1.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–5 | Road vs home | 1–110th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–4 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 2–6–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 2–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–8 NYY in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.