Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ozuna grounded out to pitcher, Riley scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5De La Cruz doubled to left, Arraez scored, Burger scored and Bell scored.0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Bruján singled to left, García scored, Rivera to second.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Bell homered to left (366 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 66%
- ML ATL -222 / MIA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.7%, market 65.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -193
- MIA +193 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 3.5 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | 0 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +54 Elo | ATL 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 65.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 306.8 | Runs scored | 3.427th of 30 |
| 22nd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −2.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 9th of 304–2 | Road vs home | 0–829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–7 | 3–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–7 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | — | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–2–1 | 9–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–4 MIA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.