Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ozuna homered to center (409 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Olson scored.9–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–7
- 7Ozuna doubled to left, Riley scored, Olson to third.6–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–7
- 6Gordon homered to right (340 feet), J. Sánchez scored.5–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 6J. Sánchez singled to center, Rivera scored, J. Sánchez to second.5–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Arraez grounded into double play, first to shortstop to first, Bruján scored, Fortes out at second.5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–4
- 4De La Cruz singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 4Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Bell scored.5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Acuña Jr. singled to center, Harris II scored, Acuña Jr. to second.5–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–1
- 4Duvall homered to center (415 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 3Olson singled to left, Albies scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Albies reached on infield single to third, Acuña Jr. scored on throwing error by third baseman Burger.2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2De La Cruz homered to left center (417 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML ATL -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.5%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ATL -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.6 – 3.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +2 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 306.3 | Runs scored | 3.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.229th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–3 | Road vs home | 1–830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–8 | 4–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | — | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–3–1 | 9–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–5 MIA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.