San Francisco Giants at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Rays- Rene PintoBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fitzgerald tripled to right, Murphy scored.4–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–9
- 7Paredes homered to left (359 feet).3–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–9
- 7Conforto homered to right center (382 feet).3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–8
- 6Pinto homered to right (380 feet).2–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 6Soler singled to left, Fitzgerald scored, Slater to second.2–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pinto homered to center (433 feet), Mead scored and Goodrum scored.1–7
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging1–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 3Paredes singled to right, Ramírez scored.1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 1Rosario homered to left (384 feet), Arozarena scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Arozarena singled to left, Díaz scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Wade Jr. singled to left, Lee scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML SF -115 / TB -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- SF: Elo 44.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +21 | −3 | SF: Blake Snell: team allows 1.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shawn Armstrong: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +39 Elo | TB 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.921st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.325th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–6 | Road vs home | 4–515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–8 | 6–9 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 4–8 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 9–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–3 TB in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.