San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gordon singled to right, J. Sánchez scored, Anderson to second.3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Wade Jr. singled to left, Conforto scored, Ahmed to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Arraez singled to left, Anderson scored and Rivera scored, Fortes to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Anderson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Bell scored, J. Sánchez out at second.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4J. Sánchez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, De La Cruz scored on error, Bell safe at second on fielding error by second baseman Fitzgerald.2–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4De La Cruz doubled to left, Arraez scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Flores doubled to center, Slater scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Chapman homered to left center (428 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -130 / MIA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SF: Elo 50.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −7 | SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +2 Elo | SF 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.724th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 5.829th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −2.129th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 24th of 304–7 | Road vs home | 1–1030th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–9 | 4–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 7–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 10–7 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 4–3 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.