Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pederson homered to right (402 feet).5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Busch singled to center, Bellinger scored, Morel to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Bellinger singled to left, Swanson to third. Swanson scored, Bellinger to third on throwing error by third baseman Suárez.4–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Bellinger homered to right center (396 feet).3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Marte singled to right, Barnhart scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 5Gomes singled to center, Tauchman scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Tauchman doubled to right, Hoerner scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Marte homered to left (417 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 54%
- ML CHC +110 / ARI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.3 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +7 Elo | ARI 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.74th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.617th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +1.26th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 21st of 305–6 | Road vs home | 7–59th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–5 | 10–8 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 6–5 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 9–8 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–7 ARI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.