St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Steven MatzPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Scott II hit sacrifice fly to center, Winn scored.9–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–6
- 8Winn tripled to right, Siani scored.8–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 7Goldschmidt singled to center, Donovan scored.7–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging6–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 16–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–6
- 5Suárez homered to right (349 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored and Walker scored.6–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Marte scored.6–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 16–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 5Marte singled to left, Newman scored.6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 36–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 5Newman doubled to center, Alexander scored.6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 3Nootbaar homered to right center (438 feet), Contreras scored.6–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 2Donovan hit sacrifice fly to right, Winn scored, Scott II to third.4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Arenado homered to left center (425 feet), Donovan scored and Goldschmidt scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML STL +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.9 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +6 | STL: Steven Matz: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +43 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 303.8 | Runs scored | 5.75th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | +1.37th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 19th of 303–4 | Road vs home | 4–39th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–4 | 8–5 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 7–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7–2 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 3–3 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.