Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-5
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 10 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gurriel Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Peterson scored, Newman to second.5–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–7
- 8Blackmon homered to right (395 feet).4–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Díaz walked, Doyle scored, McMahon to second, Blackmon to third.4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 44–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6McMahon reached on infield single to third, Rodgers scored, Blackmon to second, Doyle to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Montero hit sacrifice fly to left, Jones scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 4Jones singled to left, Díaz scored, Bryant to second.4–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Bryant singled to left, McMahon scored, Díaz to second.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Alexander scored on error and Newman scored on error, Marte safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McMahon.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Newman singled to center, Suárez scored, Newman to second, Alexander to third.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Grichuk hit sacrifice fly to left, Walker scored.1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Tovar singled to left, Blackmon scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML ARI -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 60.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.8 – 4.7 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −15 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.76 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +72 Elo | ARI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 7.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −3.430th of 30 |
| 29th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–219th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | — |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–4 COL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.