Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Brandon MarshBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer TurnbullPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Stott hit sacrifice fly to right, Harper scored, Bohm to third.5–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 10Bohm doubled to left, Pache scored, Harper to third.4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Winn singled to left, Siani scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 9Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Herrera scored, Siani to third.3–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 9Marsh homered to right (403 feet).3–1
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 22–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 7Herrera homered to left center (376 feet).2–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 5Turner singled to center, Stubbs scored, Rojas to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Rojas singled to right, Marsh scored, Stubbs to third.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML PHI -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- STL: Elo 45.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- PHI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −4 | PHI: Spencer Turnbull: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +34 Elo | PHI 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.615th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 8th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–19th of 29 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–1 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.