Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Díaz reached on infield single to third, Tovar scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 2Grichuk homered to left (372 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1McMahon grounded out to second, Blackmon scored, Tovar to third.2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Walker singled to center, Moreno scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Carroll homered to left (367 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML ARI -185 / COL +155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- COL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 6.1 – 4.9 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +42 Elo | ARI 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.0 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 7.430th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 25th of 293–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 29 |
| 30th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–4 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–4 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 13–5 COL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.