Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Michael TogliaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez doubled to left, Walker scored and Marte scored.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 7Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Carroll scored.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Toglia homered to center (426 feet), Rodgers scored.2–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Alexander homered to right (384 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Montero singled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to second.1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Carroll scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / COL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- COL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.5 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −3 | ARI: Tommy Henry: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +32 Elo | ARI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 7.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.829th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 2–318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 7–5 | 8–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 14–5 COL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.