Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-3
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Donovan grounded out to first, Winn scored.0–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Scott II hit sacrifice fly to left, Burleson scored, Winn to third.0–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 4Gorman homered to center (419 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +12 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +24 Elo | PHI 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.020th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.613th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.619th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–5 | 7–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 4–5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–1 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.