Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting2-5
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado singled to center, Contreras scored, Gorman to second.4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Castellanos singled to right, Bohm scored, Marsh to second.4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Marsh singled to left, Realmuto scored, Bohm to third.3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Donovan homered to right (375 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Herrera homered to left (432 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Bohm singled to center, Realmuto scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Schwarber scored on error, Realmuto safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Scott II, Realmuto safe at second on error.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / STL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- STL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +29 Elo | PHI 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.920th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.317th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 11th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 3–28th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 5–6 | 8–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–6 | 4–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 6–2 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.