St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Lourdes Gurriel Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Nootbaar singled to left, Arenado scored, Contreras to second.2–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 6Gurriel Jr. homered to left (377 feet), Marte scored and Carroll scored.1–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Winn singled to left, Walker scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Pederson hit sacrifice fly to left, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 52%
- ML STL +100 / ARI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 54.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 5.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −14 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.71 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +28 Elo | ARI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.74th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.717th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.09th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–4 | Road vs home | 4–49th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–4 | 8–6 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–7–2 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–3 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.