Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan WicksPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Busch homered to right (406 feet).2–4
- 9Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 31–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 7Hoerner scored on error, Gomes safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Urías.1–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 4France singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Garver scored and Moore scored, Crawford to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Urías hit by pitch, Haniger scored, Garver to second, Polanco to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML CHC +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 49.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.8 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −15 | CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +4 Elo | CHC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 306.1 | Runs scored | 3.227th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.818th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 302–4 | Road vs home | 3–419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–4 | 3–10 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 0–7 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 8–4 | 5–6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 2–1 SEA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.