Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Cody BellingerBatting2-4
- Jordan WicksPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mastrobuoni grounded out to second, Swanson scored.4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 8Rojas singled to right, Taylor scored.4–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Muncy singled to right, Ohtani scored and T. Hernández scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Barnes scored on Cuas wild pitch, T. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Cuas, Ohtani to third on wild pitch by Cuas.1–0
- 5Barnes scored on Cuas wild pitch, T. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Cuas, Ohtani to third on wild pitch by Cuas.1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -155 / CHC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 46.6%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -140
- CHC +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −31 | +1 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 1.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Jordan Wicks: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +24 Elo | CHC 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 306.4 | Runs scored | 7.01st of 30 |
| 20th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.321st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.79th of 30 |
| 23rd of 300–1 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–6 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 4–6 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 7–2–1 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–4 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.