Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7T. Hernández singled to left, Freeman scored and Smith scored.7–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 6Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored.5–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–8
- 6Happ tripled to center, Hoerner scored and Gomes scored.5–8
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–6
- 5Smith doubled to left, Freeman scored.5–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 5Ohtani homered to right (379 feet), Betts scored.4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Busch homered to right (371 feet).2–6
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 32–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 2Suzuki doubled to right, Happ scored and Madrigal scored.2–5
- 2Pitch 9 : Ball In Play2–5
- 2Hoerner scored, Happ to second, Madrigal to third on wild pitch by Miller.2–3
- 2Hoerner scored on Miller wild pitch, Happ to second on wild pitch by Miller, Madrigal to third on wild pitch by Miller.2–3
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2Madrigal singled to center, Busch scored, Hoerner to second.2–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML LAD -185 / CHC +155
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.9%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- CHC +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 3.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −11 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +34 Elo | LAD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| LAD | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 306.3 | Runs scored | 6.73rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +1.79th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 4–5 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | — | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 4–3 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.