Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching3.1 IP, 8 ER, 6 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Canzone homered to right (428 feet), Rojas scored.4–12
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8Contreras homered to center (409 feet), Ortiz scored.2–12
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–10
- 4Turang grounded out to second, Hoskins scored, Chourio to second, Frelick to third.2–10
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–9
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–9
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–9
- 4Chourio walked, Bauers scored, Frelick to second, Hoskins to third.2–9
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 42–9
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 32–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 4Adames homered to left (365 feet).2–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 4Contreras singled to right, Dunn scored, Contreras out stretching at second.2–7
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–7
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 2Contreras homered to left (396 feet), Perkins scored.2–6
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 2Dunn grounded out to second, Turang scored, Perkins to second.2–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 2Rojas singled to right, Moore scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Frelick doubled to left, Bauers scored and Contreras scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Bauers singled to right, Dunn scored, Contreras to third.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML SEA +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −1 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Colin Rea: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +36 Elo | MIL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.119th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.99th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 15th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 2–211th of 27 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 2–7 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–7 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–1 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 MIL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.