Seattle Mariners at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch HanigerBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Brewers- Oliver DunnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras walked, Frelick scored, Turang to second, Bauers to third.5–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 45–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 9Rodríguez grounded out to shortstop, S. Taylor scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Urías hit a ground rule double, Moore scored, S. Taylor to third.4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 8Dunn reached on infield single to shortstop, Contreras scored, Adames to third.3–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 33–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Yelich homered to right (431 feet).3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 6Raleigh singled to right, Haniger scored.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 6Garver hit sacrifice fly to center, Rodríguez scored, Haniger to third.2–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 6Haniger singled to left, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Dunn homered to right center (413 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML SEA +110 / MIL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.6 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SEA | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 302.4 | Runs scored | 4.019th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +0.613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 0–7 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 0–7 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | — | 3–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 0–3 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.