Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Alex KirilloffBatting1-4
- Louis VarlandPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jakob JunisPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to left, Correa scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 4Wallner hit sacrifice fly to right, Kirilloff scored, Correa to second, Buxton to third.1–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 3Turang doubled to left, Hoskins scored, Dunn to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 3Yelich homered to center (423 feet).0–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Chourio singled to right, Hoskins scored, Turang to second, Dunn to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIN +100 / MIL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +8 | MIN: Louis Varland: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIL: Jakob Junis: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +38 Elo | MIL 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| MIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 2.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +2.010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.