Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Royals- MJ MelendezBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Buxton doubled to left, Farmer scored and Vázquez scored.5–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 9Kirilloff hit sacrifice fly to left, Castro scored, Vázquez to third.3–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 9Vázquez singled to left, Jeffers scored, Castro to second; Vázquez safe at second, Castro safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Melendez.2–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 8Buxton doubled to left, Julien scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 6Melendez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to second.0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 3.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +18 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +31 Elo | MIN 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3040–41 | Road vs home | 33–4828th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIN 10–4 KC in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.